Monday’s peace deal between Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State, and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, is expected to bring an end to the political crisis in the oil-rich state.
The crisis has affected the legislature and put a question mark on the governor’s legitimacy and the integrity of democracy in the state.
The cause of the crisis is simply about Mr Wike’s ambition to have an absolute grip on the politics and governance in Rivers after his tenure ended about seven months ago on 29 May and even though he got a new job as the minister of the Federal Capital Territory.
President Bola Tinubu, who became Mr Wike’s political ally after the latter helped him to win the 2023 presidential election, mediated the peace meeting, the second in less than two months – He also chaired the first.
Nigerians have been outraged by the terms of the peace deal, which include the reappointment of all the commissioners (Wike’s loyalists) who resigned from the Rivers State Government to spite Mr Fubara, the restoration of the 25 lawmakers whose seats were declared vacant because they defected from the PDP to the APC, and for the governor to present again the state’s 2024 budget, which he had already signed into law, to all the lawmakers, including the ones whose seats had been declared vacant.
Mr Fubara has been assured in the deal that the lawmakers loyal to Mr Wike would drop their impeachment plot against him, while he and his loyalists are to withdraw all the court cases related to the matter.
The pro-Wike lawmakers, in keeping with the terms of the peace deal, withdrew the impeachment notice against Governor Fubara on Wednesday.
What is going on right now in Rivers is just what it is – a selfish and dangerous political game, with Mr Wike being the instigator, lead actor and the ultimate winner.
Before the latest peace deal, Mr Fubara had the upper hand in the power tussle, having smartly deployed legal means and some rough play (like the demolition of the Rivers House of Assembly Complex) to successfully edge out Mr Wike and the “rebellious” lawmakers.
Rivers residents and other Nigerians indeed found a suitable moment to mock Mr Wike, using the minister’s signature tune “As e dey sweet us, e go dey pain dem”, when Mr Fubara presented Rivers’ N800 billion 2024 budget to a four-member legislature.
Now, the peace deal is a breather for Mr Wike, and if it succeeds, President Tinubu would have helped prevent the minister from falling off a political cliff and made him continue to lord over Governor Fubara and the state.
President Tinubu, the APC, and the 25 lawmakers are among the winners in the peace deal. The lawmakers won’t have to forfeit their seats, despite their defection. They may even get their salaries and allowances which were withheld by the state government. With the 25 (some say 27) defected lawmakers, the APC will proudly control the state legislature, a textbook example of reaping where you did not sow.
The commissioners who resigned from Mr Fubara’s cabinet will certainly be among the big winners if the peace accord succeeds.
These former commissioners may make history in Nigeria as the first set of officials to voluntarily resign their appointment to spite a governor, and then force their way back into the same cabinet.
The Rivers people are the biggest losers in the peace deal between Governor Fubara and Mr Wike, as their governor and government are being stripped of power and legitimacy. The judiciary, democracy and constitutional governance are also big losers here.
“The first casualty here is constitutional governance,” says Sam Amadi, an analyst with Arise News.
“The second casualty would be a sense in which the people of Rivers State will feel re-captive because essentially the unspoken aspect of this deal is that the state is given back to Nyesom Wike. Mr President in a very high political gamesmanship kind of said, ‘Give Rivers State back to Wike’. (This is) a form of state capture,” he added.
Mr Amadi said President Tinubu’s “capture” of Lagos State since after his tenure as governor in 2007 may have influenced his disposition to let Mr Wike “run away with some kind of victory” in the peace deal.
Mr Fubara, who appears to have had his office ridiculed, is a loser in the peace deal with Mr Wike.
The peace deal may only usher in a temporary relief for Mr Fubara. Being an experienced, shrewd, and ambitious politician, Mr Wike is likely to still take his pound of flesh from the governor when there is another opportunity, some people say.
“I have now read the Rivers agreement. The accord will remove the knife from the neck of Sim and set it behind his back,” said a former senator, Shehu Sani.
“The accord will bury the hatchets with leaves. The accord outwardly sells peace, but internally buys time for another round of war,” Mr Sani added.
Some Rivers elders, led by Rufus Ada-Gorge, a former governor of the state, said on Tuesday that if the peace deal is allowed to succeed it would amount to President Tinubu unilaterally suspending the Nigerian Constitution by reversing the court order which recognised a pro-Fubara lawmaker, Edison Ehie, as the speaker of the Rivers assembly.
“Can Mr President or the Executive Arm of Government overrule the decisions of courts of competent jurisdiction?” the elders queried. “This portends executive rascality which undermines our constitutional democracy, rule of law and good governance.”
With their victory now reversed, the four pro-Fubara lawmakers are among the losers here.
So, will Governor Fubara accept the peace deal? Will he fight on or not?
“It appears that many people want to fight for Sim or with Sim and Sim doesn’t want to fight beyond his level. If he is appeased with the deal let him be. You can’t cry more than the bereaved,” the former senator, Mr Sani, said of the Rivers crisis.